More rain forecast after week's downpour.

19 May 2007

By Daniel Hoare for AM

Water logged paddocks at Tirlta Station, east of Broken Hill.

Meteorologists say the past few days of welcome rain in much of south-east Australia are a sign conditions are returning to normal, after the drought conditions brought on by the El Nino weather pattern.

The weather bureau may be a long way from calling an end to the drought but it is predicting plenty more rain across Victoria in the coming months.

Over the last week, farmers and city dwellers have welcomed huge downpours, particularly in western Victoria and western New South Wales.

For the last few days, Melburnians have needed to consistently leave home armed with an umbrella, for the first time in years.

While Victoria's heaviest falls have been recorded in the state's north-east, Melbourne's water catchments have been given a much-needed top-up of around 30 millimetres.

The downpour is providing residents with welcome relief - Melbourne received less rain last year than in any other year since records began and catchments are only holding 30 per cent of their capacity.

Bureau of Meteorology spokesman Phil King says the recent rain is a sign El Nino has gone and weather patterns could be returning to something more predictable. "Over quite a lot of Victoria now, we're getting close to the average autumn rainfall," he said.

"We had some rain through the north of the state in early autumn and then we had a significant system in late April, start of this month, and then this one on top of it, so we're starting to see a number of systems move through, giving us good soaking rains.

"These falls haven't been massive by any means but they've been really good, soaking rains. "What I mean is that they've been going straight into the ground. They've been wetting up the ground and feeding into the local dams and the local rivers."

La Nina

Mr King says the latest rainfall patterns could be the first evidence that La Nina, the weather pattern that replaces El Nino, has arrived.

"The El Nino broke a while ago. The ocean temperatures in the Pacific are returning to a more normal pattern," he said.

"We were expecting more normal autumn rainfalls and now we're starting to get that. It's confirmation that the atmosphere is returning to a more normal pattern.

"There are some weak signs of La Nina starting to form, which is a reverse of El Nino, but it's too early to say that.

"It'll take a few months for that to unfold. Generally by mid-winter or late into winter, we'll have a better idea if La Nina is going to develop.

"But the ocean temperatures are returning to a more normal pattern and a lot of our long-range outlooks are saying average rainfalls for the next three months.

"Even some places up through Queensland and northern New South Wales - the chances of above-average rainfall are starting to look OK."

Source: ABC Online