Massive floods, blistering heatwaves
and bizarre cold snaps since the start of the year may not be the
result of climate change, but extreme weather has become more
frequent, some scientists say.
The United Nation's World
Meteorological Organisation has reported "there is an increasing
trend in extreme events observed during the last 50 years.
It adds that "weather and climate are marked by record extremes in
many regions across the world since January 2007".
Examples are not hard to find.
The death toll from the worst monsoon floods to hit South Asia in
decades has passed 2,000, while Britain's recent floods were the
country's worst for 60 years. Southern Europe has dealt with
record temperatures this northern summer in a brutal heatwave.
South Africa has seen unusually heavy snowfalls and the
Argentinean Capital Buenos Aires got snow for the first time in 89
years. Cyclone Gonu, the first documented tropical cyclone
in the Arabian Sea, hit Oman and Iran in June, causing 50 deaths.
But establishing a link between
climate change and extreme weather is controversial. The
UN's weather agency says its Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change has found that "the warming of the climate is unequivocal".
Preliminary observations indicated global land surface
temperatures in January and April reached the highest levels ever
recorded for those months, it said. "Climate change
projections indicate it to be very likely that hot extremes,
heatwaves and heavy precipitation events will continue to become
more frequent," it said.
A study by researchers from the US
National Centre for Atmospheric Research and the Georgina
Institute of Technology says about twice as many Atlantic
hurricanes form each year on average than a century ago. It
blamed warmer sea surface temperatures and altered wind patterns
associated with global climate change for "fuelling much of the
increase", the centre said.
But scientists caution there is not
enough evidence to blame global warming for recent extreme
weather, and there are those who say there is no proof that
extreme weather events are becoming more frequent. Barry
Gromett, of Britain's Met Office weather service, said much of the
extreme weather was down to variability in the climate, which was
affected by greenhouse gases but also other factors such as El
Nino.
El Nino events are when drastic
changes in sea temperatures in tropical areas affect atmospheric
pressure in the Pacific Ocean region, having a knock-on effect on
rainfall. "There's a danger in taking isolated incidents in
any given year and attributing this to something like climate
change," Mr Gromett said. "It's really important to look for
trends over a longer period of time. More heat equals more
moisture equals probably higher rains, so in that respect some of
it ties in quite nicely [with climate change]. But there are
many different facets that appear to contradict each other."
A British Met Office study issued on
Thursday found natural weather variations helped offset the
effects of global warming in the past couple of years, but
temperatures are set to rise to record levels beginning in 2009.
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change climatologist Jean Jouzel said several more years were
needed to establish a link between these extremes and global
warming.