Need another excuse to have a flutter? If so, why not bet on the weather. Mind you, I have studied all things meteorological for over 20 years, and I wouldn't personally recommend it!
Well if you still have more money than sense, consider betting that winter 2002 across Gungahlin will be warmer than normal, because according to the Bureau of Meteorology's National Climate Centre (NCC), odds clearly favour above average temperatures for this winter.
To illustrate the point, if we run a line across Australia (from Broome in WA to Rockhampton in QLD) areas to the south of the line (which include Gungahlin) look like having a 60% chance of experiencing above average winter maximum temperatures. It gets even better if you were planning a trip to Western Australia during the winter, as the chances of warmer than normal maximums in much of that state increase to almost 80%.
Computer modeling at the NCC is also showing a 40%-60% chance of the region experiencing above average winter minimum temperatures.
The short answer is - we can't! These probabilities have resulted from higher than average sea temperatures across much of the tropical Pacific, and a warming Indian Ocean. Bureau of Meteorology data indicates that with climate patterns as they are at present, about 7 winters out of every 10 are warmer than average, with 3 out of 10 being cooler.
I'd keep my money in your pocket if I were you!! Oh, and I wouldn't be packing away the winter woolies either.
If you have any comments or questions on this article please e-mail me at Gungahlin Weather Centre.
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